20110201

01FEB11 Egypt, Obama's Carter/Iran moment?

A simple analysis would be to compare the Obama Administrations reaction to Egypts crisis right now to Carters response to Iran in the late 1970's... There are some rather interesting comparisons. Namely a dictator who was supported by the West (namely the United States) for a time who became too inconvenient to support anymore (and honestly didn't warrant much support in the first place...); and a revolt lead by Islamo-fascists hardliners. Neither are really desirable to support. Democratic revolts in the face of dictators are certainly something very satisfying to see happen as the will of the people is certainly what needs to be the mandate for a government to exist. However, certain organizations, in spite of democratic covers and front organizations, can swiftly destroy such mandates. They essentially become the very evil they overthrew. We've seen this during the French Revolution, and in every Communist Revolution from Russia to Cuba.

In Egypt, we have Mubarak instead of the Shah, and the Muslim Brotherhood instead of Islamic Revolution under Kohmeini. While the comparisons are largely superficial in regard to the exact circumstances, we shouldn't under estimate the ramifications that this will bring between the US and Egypt, and indeed the view of Middle East toward the US. I can't help but agree with Rick Francona that this isn't going to end well for us no matter whom we support. This judgment is based on his experience in the Middle East with the DoD, DIA, and State Department; and his extensive background in understanding the Middle Eastern culture in all its various forms (Egyptian culture isn't Saudi culture isn't Persian culture...).

Once again, blood will pour out while our diplomats eat caviar and drink champaign thinking they are doing a wonderful job talking to other 'diplomats' who are charged with buying time for such killing to occur more efficiently for their masters. Lets not let history repeat itself... Mark my words, our lack of backbone in the Middle East and the idea that 'engagement' is best will do more harm than good in the next couple of years!

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